Hey, Congress! You Are Asking the Wrong Question!

The brinksmanship in Washington has a lot of people upset (including me).  But the reasons differ depending upon where you sit and what relationships you have with the federal government.  Indeed, not everyone is upset.  A client told me he was in the middle of an IRS audit when the government shut down.  He wasn’t upset when the auditors vanished. 

A conservative friend of mine is upset with the direction of the Republican Party.  He quoted Napoleon over lunch.  In his view, Obamacare will collapse of its own weight and Republicans would be wise to let it.  “Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake. That's bad manners,” quipped Napoleon.

However, Wall Street Journal economics editor David Wessel extols the virtues of Obamacare in an Op-Ed piece called “Obamacare – A Game Changer in the Making?” 

The Economist tries to elevate the debate a bit, pointing out “when you are brawling on the edge of a cliff the big question is not ‘Who is right?’ but ‘What the hell are you doing on the edge of a cliff?’ ” 

Meanwhile, Joshua Green asserts that “Republicans Are No Longer the Party of Business” in Bloomberg Businessweek.  Green starts with an anecdote about a Tennessee businessman whose company makes furniture.  He says, “It’s as if House Republicans are playing suicide bomber with the U.S. economy.”  People who make furniture are affected by a slow down in government-funded mortgages. 

None of them are asking the right question. 

Why is the government in the mortgage business?  For that matter, why are they in any business?

One could challenge a lot of things our government does.  The government is the largest landowner in the nation.  By some estimates it owns approximately $128 Trillion of real estate and mineral rights. 

Sell 10% of it and our debt problem vanishes.  Sell another 10% and no one pays taxes for the next three years.

The federal government also distributes between $10 Billion and $30 Billion in farm subsidies each year.  Originally intended to provide support to poor farmers who might again suffer the trials of the Great Depression and the Dustbowl, it now provides support to absentee landowners who are millionaires many times over.  The bottom 80% of recipients gets an average of $587 per year. 

Try to eliminate the subsidies and you’ll run into a buzz saw of mostly Republican congressmen who fight to protect the economic interests who send them back to Washington every two years.

Changing this paradigm doesn’t help to resolve the current budget and debt ceiling crisis.  However, it does go to the core of some foundational principles.

Americans take a lot for granted.  We expect the water from our faucets to be potable, the electric power grid to be reliable and the transportation systems to be safe.  We expect our military to be strong, our economy to be prosperous and our institutions to protect us from ourselves.

We have the luxury of those expectations because of the last 150 years of prosperity.  Yet, we have lost track of what got us here. 

The principles of economic freedom – predictable policy, rule of law, strong incentives, reliance on markets, limited role of government – are no longer on the minds of those who govern.  So, corporate interests have adapted.  In a world where lobbying for favorable tax and regulatory treatment can have a dramatic effect on your bottom line, big businesses benefit by focusing on Washington.  Interrupt that activity and the muddle that is the media somehow draws the conclusion that “Republicans Are No Longer the Party of Business”.

In the lingua franca of today’s political environment, the term economic freedom sounds conservative and Republican.  However, since WW II, the violators have come from both parties.  Starting in the 1960s, Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter approved a succession of laws, regulations and restrictions that violated the core values of the economic system that underpins our economic strength.  Perhaps no violation was more egregious than Nixon’s imposition of wage and price controls in 1971. 

An America that transforms itself from a free market juggernaut to a government that funds its favored interests will not maintain its economic leadership.  Instead, we will continue to be mired in the current slog of low economic growth rates and expansionist monetary policy. 

A reversal of that course will tread on the entrenched interests of big corporations who have benefited from the results of their influence on electoral outcomes.  Yet, that is what’s necessary to restore economic growth, the strength of the middle class and continued American hegemony.  The only question is…

WHO WILL LEAD?

GM, Ford, Chrysler… Does the end justify the means?

Have you heard?  People everywhere (except Europe) are buying cars again.  Automotive News reports that June’s U.S. auto sales are up for six consecutive years. They project 16 million for the full year.  Further, they report that each of the Detroit Big 3 gained market share in the first six months of 2013. 

That’s a far cry from the reports out of Detroit a few years ago.

More interesting is that foreign manufacturers are locating more factories here in the U.S.  Is that a good thing?  You bet.  When companies from another country invest here it creates jobs no matter what the nameplate on the car.  Indeed, Nissan, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda, BMW and the rest are exporting cars from their U.S. factories to the rest of the world.

Bloomberg recently ranked the U.S. as the third most attractive country to locate a business behind Hong Kong and the Netherlands.  China? They’re number 19. 

How can that be?  Here’s how.  While it’s true that the weaker dollar has caused the effective labor cost to drop, what’s more important is that the U.S. is well integrated into the global economy through its transportation and communications systems, has the wealthiest consumer base and is a rules-based economy. 

Global investors – business owners, corporate executives, shareholders -- are more likely to put their money into a venture governed by a reliable set of regulations, taxes, policies, etc.  “The rule of law” is very important to them.

Rule of law is a confusing term and, used in other than economic contexts, can be construed as “rule according to law” or “rule under the law”.  Dictionary.com provides a concise definition thusly:  “the principle that all people and institutions are subject to and accountable to law that is fairly applied and enforced; the principle of government by law.”

Was the rule of law abandoned a few years ago when the automakers were circling the toilet for the third time?  Fearful that hundreds of thousands of jobs would be flushed along with the shareholders money, the government intervened, first under the Bush administration, to loan TARP money the automakers and, then under the Obama administration, to engineer a restructuring of both GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy proceedings.

Critics howled but fear ruled the day.  So, what would have happened if the government hadn’t stepped in?  Many of my friends and colleagues have speculated that private investors would have acquired the assets through a Section 363 sale in bankruptcy court.  GM could probably have been had for about $10 billion, chump change for the private equity industry. 

But, I am not so sure.  We were all in a panic in the first half of 2009.  No one was quite sure what would happen next.  Investors like a stable environment in which they can place their bets.  2009 was anything but stable.   Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation (NYSE:AN) the nation’s largest auto dealer, has often said, “it’s pains me as a conservative Republican to say this…” but the U.S automakers would not have survived if the government hadn’t taken action.  He goes on to support the oft-reported view that the a GM liquidation would have unraveled the supply chain and brought down many other companies in the industry, causing not only job losses but also disruption of the global economy.  And, this was at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve was still putting the Humpty-Dumpty financial services industry together again.

Principles are important.  Our leaders, both Republicans and Democrats, violated so many sound principles of capitalism during the nine-month span between the Lehman bankruptcy and the GM bankruptcy that it’s hard to keep track.  The most prolific of the Austrian school of economics, Friedrich Hayek, in his most important work The Road to Serfdom, said, “nothing distinguishes more clearly conditions in a free country from those in a country under arbitrary government than the observance in the former of the great principles known as the Rule of Law”.

But, there is no line in the sand that can distinguish between actions that satisfy the principles of the rule of law.  Both the President and the Chair of the Federal Reserve are given a great deal of discretion.  Here’s what George W. Bush told CNN in December 2008, a month before he turned the reins of government over to his successor.  "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system, to make sure the economy doesn't collapse."

We’ll never know what might have happened if the government hadn’t exercised its discretion.  But, no President wants to preside over the collapse of the economy.

WHO WILL LEAD?