Monday, May 18, 2020

Your choice: Democrat ineffectiveness or Republican hypocrisy

Sometimes you read something so obvious you can’t believe you didn’t figure it out for yourself.  Such was my experience when I read Russ Roberts’ piece on Medium titled “The Economist as Scapegoat.”  Roberts doesn’t just punch holes in a habitual argument.  Rather, he slams you between the eyes with a two-by-four.  He presents data that contradicts the idea that life has gotten worse for many Americans because of Reagan era policies based upon the philosophy of Nobel-winning economist Milton Freidman.  In other words, this convenient trope is not borne out by reality.  

In reality, Freidman’s proposals have never been implemented.  During the so-called Reagan era (the last 40 years), the nation’s budget has been managed more by the prescription of liberal politicians than conservatives, even – or especially – when Republicans are running the government. 

Over the last 50 years, government spending has increased both in real nominal terms… 



Government regulations have increased not decreased… 


And, out-of-pocket healthcare costs have decreased while government spending on healthcare has increased.  



Roberts argument motivated me to do some digging.  What about other liberal tropes?  Do they stand up to scrutiny.  The press likes to trumpet that the wealthy don’t pay their fair share of taxes. Here’s what the Congressional Budget Office has to say: 


Another persistent trope is the comparison to the economies of Europe and the progressivity of our tax code.  This analysis compiled by Bloomberg from OECD data presents an interesting, if complex, picture.  


The figures in the left-hand column are those most often quoted in the press.  But the figures in the right-hand column tell the tale.  The larger the ratio, the more progressive the tax code.  The largest economies in Europe, including the Scandinavian countries, have tax codes that weigh more heavily on the middle class than the wealthy.  

The Bloomberg article goes further to show how the generous benefits of European countries are financed in large part by consumption taxes (Value-Added Tax in Europe; sales taxes in the U.S.) that affect the poor and middle class more than the wealthy.  


American politicians want us to believe the system is rigged against us.  It’s only fair to tax the wealthy to pay the bill, right? Europeans follow a more moral path:  citizens who want government benefits are willing to pay for them.  

All of which suggests to me that what has failed us is not a decline in government investment but rather the persistent failure of the welfare state to address the needs of those who need it most while threatening to bankrupt the economy in the process.  So, perhaps, it’s a good idea to examine what got us here and consider restructuring our efforts.  The challenge, of course, is that doing so relies upon an overthrow of highly educated people who have promoted the idea they are omniscient and, therefore, worth every penny they are paid to spout nonsense.  This faulty presumption leads to bold predictions about how a large, unmeasurable, complex system (the American economy) will respond to government inputs (fiscal policy and regulations).  To be clear, I’m talking about how wrong our politicians and policy elites get things on an ongoing basis.

While the data support the idea that the welfare state has failed, the other side of the coin is perhaps more telling.  Far from following the “starve the beast” philosophy defined during the Reagan administration, Republicans have hypocritically done the opposite.  They have consistently voted for bigger and bigger deficits.  Far from reducing the size of government, they have allowed liberals to tempt Americans into an addiction to government programs while promoting their own brand of addiction: lower taxes.  

WHO WILL LEAD? 





Tuesday, May 5, 2020

A serious personality disorder

In a moment of frustration, an old friend (a consultant in organizational development) blurted out: “in order to be CEO of a major corporation in America, one has to have a serious personality disorder and broadcast it widely.”  We were in my office and, after we had a few laughs about it, I replied, “Truth is… everyone has a serious personality disorder.  It’s just that, when you’re a CEO, it’s broadcast widely.”  I might have added, “even more so if you’re a political leader.”

Whether in politics or corporate life, the chief executive is rarely the expert on what to do.  However, he or she must be the expert on how to communicate what to do.  The absence of clear, credible communication leaves people in a state of fear which, in turn, leads to panic and the spread of misinformation.  People need to believe what their leaders are saying in order act responsibly and hang together as a community. 

Clear communication means being honest about what is known and what is not.  It means being open about what’s being done to find the answers and achieve the best outcomes.  And, the pronouncements from on high must match the ground level reality.  It does not reassure the public to say we can test everyone for coronavirus when everyone knows that’s not true.  Indeed, it makes matters worse.  It’s a breach of trust that leads to people not trusting anyone. 

There is not a clear path to containing coronavirus, keeping the public safe or balancing the risk of disease against the need to keep the economy moving.  In matters as complex as the pandemic, our leaders should encourage us to shed our tendency toward binary choices: extreme action versus fiddling while Rome burns.  In such times, it’s important to be guided by principles and values.  Despite our differences on fairness and the role of government, we share common values.  We believe in the sanctity of human life; the reciprocal obligations within our communities; and, respect for the rights, differences and dignity of others. 

So, what must be communicated?  In a word – Hope!  Hope makes our current situation more bearable.  Hope provides motivation to contribute our efforts to our community.  Hope links our current difficulties to a better future.  During this pandemic, what we hold dear is what is most challenged.  Our economic future is challenged; the health of our families is challenged; and, our psychological well-being is challenged.  A message for a hopeful
future must connect our current situation to a brighter future by being honest about what’s happening; communicating our plans to restore our communities; and, assuring the public of a consistent effort that marshals all our resources.

All of that can be communicated and should be communicated in spite of our personality disorders. 

WHO WILL LEAD?