Sunday, May 19, 2019

The GOP’s lost credibility

 The Republican Party – The Grand Old Party – The GOP – used to adhere to principles of limited government and did so for nearly 150 years.  Yet, somehow, in the last 20 years, those principles have gone by the wayside.  Once, the GOP counseled restraint in foreign affairs.  Their leaders warned against “nation building.”  Yet, we now live with two unwon wars compliments of a Republican president who, in his spare time, created a new entitlement program and a national program to exercise control over public schools, once the province of local communities.  That doesn’t sound like limited government to me.

Perhaps no violation of principle is more egregious than abandonment of the idea that the federal government should run a balanced budget.  More than government programs and regulation, the intrusion of government spending into the economy misdirects the free flow of capital.  More than any other national political figure, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan should be held accountable for this violation of the principles of sound governance. 

Ryan was an obscure congressman when he was appointed to President Obama’s National Committee on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, more commonly known as the Bowles-Simpson Committee. He was also considered to be a foremost expert on the federal budget.  And, he advocated for a balanced budget right up until he didn’t.  He left town (D.C. that is) with his tail between his legs after passing a hodgepodge tax reform bill that left us with trillion-dollar annual deficits.  No responsible economist expects the resulting economic growth to offset the effect of those deficits over the long term.  

It may be that the average voter doesn’t think in terms of principled governance.  Most people vote from an emotional response to candidates and the aphorisms they use to frame their ideas.  But the simple principle of keeping government out of my life and my wallet provided a resonant idea I and many others could embrace.  When Republicans broke loose of their moorings – their moral underpinnings, if you will -- they opened the door for Trump who has never had any. 

Trump’s appeal to the ‘little guy’ results from a broken deal.  Within our social contract, it’s always been true that the rich get richer. And, the middle class has found that acceptable, so long as stable family life was part of the deal.  But, even those with good jobs and stable careers, are getting squeezed by rising healthcare and tuition costs (both the beneficiaries of government largesse).  Couple that with a rhetorical bent that favors business interests over citizens and the breakdown is reinforced.  


Poor stewardship of our economy, domestic policy and foreign affairs during this century has left the door open to radical ideas from the left.  If nothing is working, try something new!  Anything new!  Modern Monetary Theory (which economist John Mauldin calls Modern Monetary Madness) is Exhibit A. Radical ideas take shape when they find a way around traditional objections.  MMT answers “how you gonna pay for that?” by answering “we’ll just create new money.”  Not so long ago, these such an idea would be dismissed out of hand.  Now, it is treated as worthy of consideration.  

We celebrate our children’s successes but graduate them into a world that increasingly denigrates their success as adults.  To make more money than your fellow citizens is cast as immoral and unfair by the extreme left and each of the 20+ Democrats running for president must buy-in to such nonsense to be considered a viable candidate.

When the left professes that the money to fund their outrageous ideas will come from taxing the rich, they demonstrate the failure of the public-school system to teach them simple arithmetic. AOC’s 70% tax on the rich would raise tax revenue within a range of $.5B to $29B/year according to the Tax Foundation.

But the GOP can’t credibly call them on it because they have lost the moral authority to do so.  

WHO WILL LEAD?

What I’m reading

The Harvard Business Review analyzes the job market in What the Job Market Looks Like for Today’s College Graduates…   Blogger Lin Grensing-Pophal outlines Seven Steps for Conducting a Visioning Exercise for those who are considering their future… Writing in Vox, NY Times technology columnist Kara Swisher asks, Can Anyone Tame the Next Internet?

Monday, May 6, 2019

Stranger in a ‘Blue’ Land: the plight of a political moderate


Remember hanging chads? You know, those pesky little half-punched-out cardboard holes in presidential ballots during the 2000 recount… Well, I remember them well because I lived in the Florida swing district at ground zero of the controversy. Florida was then and still is a swing state, voting with the winning presidential candidate in the last five quadrennial contests.  I felt more comfortable voting there because candidates in swing states have to appease moderate voters to get elected.  In fact, I recall voting in the 2010 off-year elections for the Democratic candidate for governor, an independent for U.S. Senate and a Republican for the House of Representatives.  In fact, I have always lived in swing states.  Before Florida, there was Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Jersey – yes, New Jersey was once a swing state as was New York when I grew up here. (Remember Nelson Rockefeller?) 

All of this came back to me recently as I pondered why I am so unhappy with New York State politics. Embedded deeply in ‘Blue’ ideology, the Democrats who now control state government endeavor to run the table with the headline ideas of their national party while complaining that a governor of their own party holds fast to a 2% cap on annual tax increases.  The debate boggles my mind.  New York consistently rates at or near the bottom in the Tax Foundation’s Business Tax Climate Index.  Why aren’t we reducing taxes? 

Seeking validation that I am not off my rocker, I recently took the political typology quiz on the non-partisan Pew Research website.  (Seventeen ‘either/or’ questions, 3 minutes – try it!) I landed smack dab in the middle of the nine categories from left to right -- ‘New Era Enterpriser.’  No wonder I’m a swing voter.  


Then, of course, there are the presidential elections.  I am not a Trump voter, but neither will I vote for any Democrat who promotes radical ideas like free tuition, Medicare for All or the Green New Deal.  Of course, if you live in a Deep Blue (or Deep Red) state, it really doesn’t matter for whom you cast your presidential vote.  All the electoral votes go the candidate who wins the most individual votes – in New York, that will be the Democrat. 

So, what’s a swing voter to do?

While I was pondering our choices in 2016, Bill Clinton convinced me to vote third partyBill Clinton?you say.  Yes, Bill Clinton.  In a podcast promoting the candidacy of his wife –With Her – he pointed out that voting third party or even not voting sends a message to the major parties.  They feel compelled to figure out how to win you over, he asserts. If only…

WHO WILL LEAD?

What I’m Reading

Carole Cadwalladr, a reporter for the British newspaper ‘The Guardian,’ writes about delivering a TED talk about the transgressions of Big Tech while Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg and other Silicon Valley big shots were in the room…  NY Times columnist David Brooks writes about experiencing one’s ‘annunciation moment,’ the time when “a new passion is silently conceived…”  Joseph Antos and James Capretta of the American Enterprise Institute discuss how to achieve universal healthcare coverage without Medicare For All. 


Is it just me or is having a bunch of bureaucrats decide who won the Kentucky Derby a sign of the times?