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| General Martin Dempsey |
Aren’t we all a little war-weary? We still have troops in Afghanistan (105 casualties this year). We have spent over $1Trillion on two wars and have yet to come to grips with either the social or
financial impact of thousands of wounded warriors coming home.
So, why is the Obama administration wringing its hands over
Syria? Is it conceivable that we would
add it to the list of countries where we have intervened militarily?
Syria, a former Soviet ally, serves as the western anchor
for a potentially powerful Iranian coalition. Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab
running a Shia nation from a minority position, was an obstacle to the
formation of that coalition. Now Iran,
whose paranoia was fed by having thousands of U.S. troops amassed in nations
bordering them to the east and the west, has an opportunity.
Stir Russia into the mix.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s sphere of influence
contracted. Russia now seeks to extend
its influence to the Middle East and Southern Asia without using its
military. They have taken advantage of a
financially weakened Europe by both making it dependent upon them for energy
and by acquiring assets throughout the continent. It is not in their interest for energy
sources outside its control to be available to Europe.
International diplomacy is a game of maintaining a balance
of power among competing strategic players.
The smarter of them will take advantage of world events to tip the
balance in their favor. Russia sees
opportunity in an alliance with Iran by supporting the Assad regime in Syria.
The U.S. is typically an unsophisticated player on this
stage. Our geographic isolation and
domestic concerns place international affairs way down the list on the matters
that concern most voters. Following a
major military engagement, we hear the same old aphorisms. “America can’t be the world’s policeman.” “Someone else should step
up.” “We have problems here at home.”
The result is inconsistency and the risk is that potential
allies do not see us as reliable partners.
Diplomacy – like nature – abhors a vacuum. We have seen what happens when we don’t
become involved. Yugoslavia and Rwanda
come to mind.
And, it may be that our adversaries in the region see us as
creating a vacuum by virtue of our inability to form a cohesive, consistent,
successful foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The rush to fill the void may heighten the risk
of war.
It’s in America’s interest to limit both Iranian and Russian
power. And, it must do so without
considering its military power as its first option. The U.S. can only afford to support those
countries that take responsibility for their national security interests
themselves. We cannot be the first
source of that security. We need to
develop a low-risk strategy that doesn’t rely upon knee-jerk military
responses.
The entire world knows that the U.S. has neither the
political will nor the resources to occupy and govern an Asian nation. However, we can provide support through arms,
training, air and sea power. Coupled
with trade, a sustainable alliance of this nature allows our allies to be
secure in the idea that we will not abandon them.
So, what are our diplomatic options? How do we create an alliance that will serve
our interests and tip the balance of power in our favor?
The Caucasus region is where both the Russian and Persian
empires converge with Turkey (the empire that collapsed as the Soviet empire
emerged). The nation at the nexus of
that convergence is Azerbaijan. A
hundred years ago, half the world’s oil was produced in Azerbaijan.
But, even when the royal baby isn’t in the headlines, we
don’t hear about Azerbaijan, a tiny nation that has become a centerpiece of
Israeli foreign policy. Its government has
longstanding grievances with Iran – over control of bordering territory
primarily. A secular Muslim nation (hard
to come by), it accuses Iran of supporting Islamist, anti-government factions
within its borders.
So, Azerbaijan has formed a substantial trading relationship with Israel, selling it oil and acquiring weapons and military materiel in
exchange. The U.S. should leverage this
relationship for its benefit. Israel has “stepped up” as we have stood
down. It is imperative that we continue to
support their efforts.
Now that the royal baby has been named, maybe we can start
paying attention to something that matters.
WHO WILL LEAD?
