Showing posts with label David Brooks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Brooks. Show all posts

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Drugged and Constipated: A Tale of Middle Age and a Muddle Through Economy

Our view of Canandaigua Lake
My wife, Suzanne, and I just returned from a two week vacation at our second home in Canandaigua, NY – the name translates to the Chosen Spot in Iroquois. I am sure you can see why. We drive up and back, a trip of 1400 miles one way – which strikes most people as crazy. But, we love to hang out at the lake and we love to hang out with our dog; so, we drive the dog to the lake. After two and half days of sleeping pills and fast food, we arrive drugged and constipated.


It gives us the opportunity to experience a little slice of America that we would miss if we flew. I am an amateur economist so I always view these little slices through that lens.

We always talk about selling the place on the way up. Our financial planner would approve. We bought it during the run-up in real estate as an investment which, of course, hasn’t worked out as we planned. But, once we get there, those thoughts always evaporate.

Vacation when you own the place isn’t the same as renting a room at a four star resort. Ours are more like rehearsing for retirement than true R&R. What do we do? We go on hikes, visit family, read, and have friends over for dinner. And, we shop. Oh, when I say shop I don’t mean going to the nearest Gucci outlet. We go to TJ Maxx to replenish the linens and to the local furniture store to buy a new mattress. (Mostly Suzanne does this while I hang out with the dog and read.)


Yours truly hanging out with Parker
 I managed to polish off two eBooks. The Big Short, Michael Lewis’ story of the mortgage crisis, and Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond, a 673 page tome cataloging the emergence and development of human civilization since the Ice Age. I recommend them both.

I also quit my job half-way through. That was a weird thing to do on vacation. There is a new opportunity waiting for me this week. Yes, folks, there are jobs out there but it helps to have one when you are looking. In my role at Tatum, I have met 10’s or maybe 100’s of unemployed executives with great qualifications who can’t find meaningful work. It’s a national problem not just a Florida problem.

Most economists would agree.

Our niece, Renee, and her husband, Bob, dropped by. Their son just received his commission in the US Army and is on his way to Kuwait. Bob owns an electrical contracting business. His take on the economy is that things will be like this for years. Why? Because people lack confidence. No one is quite sure what will happen next. He is not talking about the EU debt crisis, the budget deficit or the prospective failure of the Medicare system. He is talking about people who build things and buy things. “It might not be so bad,” he says, “if ‘they’ wouldn’t talk things down so much.”

Most economists would agree.

On the drive home, we checked in at the Residence Inn in Waynesboro, VA and got a takeout dinner at the Outback next door. Chicken strips for the dog. We like stopping in Virginia since we are focused on it as a prospective place to retire. We keep saying we should spend more time there. We need to go back soon. (Without the dog.) The girl who took my money at Outback was a local resident who grew up in Danville, NY a few miles from Canandaigua. She told me that she moved back for a few months last year to be closer to family but returned as soon as she could. “Couldn’t handle the weather?” I asked. “No,” she said. “It’s too expensive there.” Taxes, rent and almost everything else are cheaper in VA. Good place to retire, right?

Most economists would agree.

The next day, we stumbled onto the Island Grill in Port Wentworth, GA. What a great place to eat (Exit 109 off I-95, in case you are interested). The parking lot contained more pickups than SUV’s. So, when we found a little spot in the corner of the patio under an umbrella, the conversation wasn’t Wall Street or Washington. It was about Harleys, fishing and felling trees. These are the people who pick up and move to where the work is. They live from paycheck to paycheck and the paychecks aren’t as big as they used to be. Like most Americans, they are working harder and making less these days.

Most economists would agree.

Our last day on the road, I woke up and checked out the NY Times on my iPad. I read David Brooks' column describing the way in which key executives at Fannie Mae spent the better part of the 1990’s currying favor in Congress so they could increase home ownership in America, all the while taking big bonuses for themselves. We all know how that worked out. If you want the details, read The Big Short.

I flipped on CNBC to listen to John Hofmeister, the former president of Shell Oil, complain about the anti-oil bias of the Obama administration. It’s a fair criticism. I think we should take advantage of America’s natural resources without government interference. Perhaps the interviewer should have asked him if he would give up federal subsidies for oil drilling in exchange for an improved regulatory environment. I would have. By the way, guess what Mr. Hofmeister is doing now. He’s a lobbyist, of course.

While Washington dithers, Fannie Mae is doing what it has always done and Big Oil (and every other big money interest) is having its way with Congress. Meanwhile, from Williamsport to Waynesboro to Port Wentworth, Americans are muddling through as best they can. We are addicted to a media that feeds us a steady stream of immaterial stories -- the President’s birth certificate or (dare I say it) Wiener’s wiener.

We are indeed drugged and constipated.

Most economists would agree.

WHO WILL LEAD?

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Rules? What Rules?

"My, we seem to be a little short on brotherly love round here." 

-- Butch Cassidy, as played by Paul Newman in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

I got into a Facebook Fight last week. Have you ever been in one? It's kind of like that scene from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. You know the one where Butch has to get into a knife fight with a really big, scary guy. He asks him, "What are the rules?" Big Scary Guy replies: "Rules? In a knife fight? No rules!"  He no sooner gets the words out of his mouth than Butch kicks him in the groin. Well, there are no rules in a Facebook Fight either.


I use different internet tools for different purposes. LinkedIn for business; Facebook for personal stuff, pictures and messages to friends and family, etc. So, when I woke up at my usual 5 AM to a posting on my Facebook wall supporting the Wisconsin 14, I went off the deep end. Last year, I had de-friended members of my own family for posting their support of the Arizona immigration law. So, why am I waking up to some commie crap on my damn wall? By a so-called friend no less.

Now, 5 AM is not my best time of day. I could have deleted it. I could have blocked the friend from posting on my wall. I could have de-friended him. But, no-o-o-o! I responded aggressively.

My opponent was a very well read Ph.D. And worse, he was abetted by an old high school chum of mine with whom I haven’t spoken since graduation day. In fact, I am not sure I even spoke to him then. Two against one. That’s not fair! Oh yeah, there are no rules in a Facebook Fight. My H.S. buddy is a school psychologist according to his Facebook page. So, he is right there with the Ph.D.

Ph.D. hits me with Robert Reich. I parry with Freidrich Hayek. He’s never heard of him. Hah! Take that, Ph.D.

I am a fan of NY Times columnist, David Brooks. I never miss a column. He mostly writes about political and policy issues and represents a moderate voice that does not adhere to any political dogma. I guess that’s why I like him. His new book is called The Social Animal. I understand from the reviews and summaries that it is a fictional representation of the ways in which we form relationships and connect ourselves to ideas and social norms. Though not an expert on brain science, Brooks has written of our new understanding of it and how it has affected us. Think of all those bright business school grads on Wall Street and how they self destructed during the financial crisis of 2008/09.

So, here I am parrying the thrusts and jabs of my formidable opposition and it occurs to me that Brooks is right about all this. I am fairly well read myself and yet could not convince either of these guys of the wisdom of my thinking any more than they could convince me of theirs. It’s not that their thinking was irrational. Indeed, their thoughts might be considered to be a rationalization of their beliefs.

All their reading and learning had been directed to support their values and biases. So, were mine. There was no winning this Facebook Fight for any of us. No way, no how.

Isn’t that what’s happening across the nation? Don’t you get emails from your friends and colleagues that either reinforce your views or infuriate you? So, how can we solve the big national problems when we are all so enamored of what’s going on in our own heads that we can’t compromise?

A recent speech by Republican Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana to the Conservative Political Action Committee provides some insight on how we might answer that question. He counsels his right wing followers to put everything on the table including tax increases and defense spending to resolve the problem of our deficits and debt.

He reminds his followers that “big change requires big majorities” and that we will “need people who never listen to Rush or Glenn or Laura or Sean”. He also reminds us that the founders “made compacts and concessions and, yes, compromises” in the cause of creating one union from the 13 colonies who won their freedom from the British crown.

NPR called it a Grown Up brand of GOP politics. We need that from both sides of the aisle. A recent report from economist John Mauldin found that a “majority of voters incorrectly believes the federal government spends more on defense/foreign aid than it does on Medicare and Social Security (63%). Also, a similar majority (60%) incorrectly believes problems with the federal budget can be fixed by just eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.”

The President created his own version of Grown Up politics with the Simpson Bowles Commission aimed at resolving our national debt. Their controversial proposal is dying a slow death like those of most Presidential commissions.

Our debt problem is serious and addressing it will be painful. What is called for is the equivalent of Ronald Reagan’s dollar bill speech in 1981. He held up a dollar bill and opened with “This is a dollar bill…..”

We guffawed about it the following day on the trading floor at Goldman Sachs. But, that’s the kind of communication that is called for now. Reagan explained to voters how every dollar they earn is divided up. The equivalent of a PowerPoint pie chart.

The pie chart needs to be updated. If nothing changes, every dollar of tax revenue will go to paying interest on the national debt within 10 years. Nothing left for national defense. Nothing left for social programs. Nothing.

The only question is: WHO WILL LEAD?