The Fourth Turning: how Millennials will save capitalism

In my last post (Let’s understand just whatsocialism means to us (redux)), I decried the misguided belief that socialism should displace the capitalist system in the industrialized West.  Old, white guys like me won’t be around to turn the tide against this trend.  It will be the Millennial generation that saves capitalism.

In Neil Howe’s book “The Fourth Turning: AnAmerican Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny,” he outlines how four repeating generational cycles (or Turnings) determine social attitudes and ultimately govern the social contract. You can find a one page summary on his website.

Howe’s hypothesis will ring true to any student of American History as he traces the impact of events on rising generations and how each generation changes the social order. The WWII generation was in the driver’s seat for the most recent First Turning, the “American High” following WWII when the crisis of the Great Depression gave way to a period of prosperity characterized by high levels of trust in institutions. 

The Fourth Turning in this model is crisis. The Stock Market Crash of 1929 began the crisis that preceded the American High. Four generations later, Howe tells us, “Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation … show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.”  It is they who will develop a new social order in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008.

My contemporaries doubt this.  Like all generations of elders, we collectively take a dim view of youth that that we see as addicted to their smartphones and cowering in their safe zones.  But, I take a different view.  Studies by Big 4 accounting firm Deloitte show Millennials tend to develop values consistent with their elders once they form families.  And, they are also becoming entrepreneurs.  Their future success will be enabled by technologies their elders are, to some extent, ignoring like broadband, social media and 3-D printing.

Still not convinced? 

How about this? Businesses change their approach to the market when it’s in their best interests to do so.  Corporate values will shift as Millennials become their core customers.

In the post-industrial 21^th Century, it’s getting harder to succeed purely on the basis of what you produce.  Your innovation can easily be copied, produced in a low cost factory overseas and exported to any market.  In a world where nearly every consumer can compare prices and features instantaneously, the spoils will go to the lowest cost producer not the innovator. 

To succeed in the 21^st Century, corporations will have to “outbehave the competition…” according to Dov Seidman.  His book, “HOW: Why How We DoAnything Means Everything,” outlines how companies must engage all of the talents of their employees to extend enduring value to customers.  Those that succeed will be those whose behavior is aligned with its customers’ values.  They will accrue enterprise value by becoming internetworked with the communities they serve. To do so they must engage their employees by treating them fairly and giving them good reasons to be proud of what they do and where they work. 

Granted, my argument is highly speculative (or full of holes if you prefer).  The future is hard to predict.  I truly have no idea how Millennials will ensure our continued prosperity.  I simply know that every generation does so.

To buy into my argument one must have faith.  My personal faith is best captured in a quote from the late John McCain:  “Our shared values define us more than our differences.  And acknowledging those shared values can see us through our challenges today if we have the wisdom to trust them again.”

Leaders of the Fourth Turning will be those who can merge our values with our aspirations.  It is they WHO WILL LEAD!