In college, I read lots of books by Kurt Vonnegut. He had a unique ability to paint a surreal
picture in novels like Slaughterhouse Five, Cat’s Cradle and Breakfast of
Champions. His capacity to turn logic and
our belief systems on their heads is evident in this quote (speaking of the
human race):
"We're terrible animals. I think that the
Earth's immune system is trying to get rid of us, as well it should."
As surreal as that might be, its sentiment echoes Enrico
Fermi. The brilliant Italian physicist
once asked a casual question that has led to a half century of metaphysical
inquiry about the nature of civilizations on this and other planets. Known as the Fermi Paradox, it is a question
with no answer.
Every star in the Milky Way has planets. With over 300 Million stars, Fermi speculates
that there must be some other civilizations out there. In the absence of evidence of their
existence, should we assume that they never existed or that they have existed
but become extinct? I might put it
another way. Are civilizations sustainable?
Have we Earthlings, like others before us, hit the sustainability
wall?
As we know, burning fossil fuels creates toxic by-products. And, what of the alternatives?
Scientists at the Max Planck Institute have determined that
deploying wind turbines on a massive scale would have environmental consequences….
Producing bio-fuels on a large scale requires vast plots of
land and quantities of water….
Extracting hydrogen from natural gas emits green house gases
(carbon dioxide)…
And so it goes….
John Englander, author of “High Tide on Main Street: RisingSea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis”, doesn’t trouble himself with
metaphysical questions. A former CEO of the Cousteau Society, John believes
that we have passed the tipping point ofglobal climate change. There is no
looking back. We must focus on how to
adapt to Sea Level Rise (SLR).
John tracked me down to make sure I got the message. In my last post, I expressed some doubt about
the conclusions of the IPCC report. “My reading of the definitive report by the UN sponsored International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
lends some doubt on those projections as the IPCC uses the adjective “likely”
or “very likely” when describing their projections. Science is never certain,” I said.
John doesn’t dispute my reading comprehension. He simply points out the IPCC drew
conclusions least subject to attack by political factions inimical to their
findings. So, their findings present the
most optimistic case. The range ofpossibilities is much worse than the IPCC lets on.
John eschews the politics of climate change. “Ice turns to water at 32°,”
he says. “It doesn’t care if you’re a
Democrat or a Republican.”
He makes a compelling case.
Sea level has been rising and falling hundreds of feet for each ice age
cycle of 100,000 years. The one and a
half degree change in ocean temperatures over the last 100 years guarantees
that the ice will melt for centuries, raising sea levels. Done deal.
Speaking at the TEDx Conference in Boca Raton, Florida last
year, he advocated that we stop debating where we are and how we got here. Let’s focus on what to do next.
In his book, Englander lays out the options for several
cities. Solutions vary depending upon
the geology of each city. New York, for
example, sits on granite. So, the system of dykes planned by the Bloomberg administration may work to counter the impact.
Miami, sitting on a bed of limestone, may not survive.
The effects can already be seen in Miami Beach where the city has begun a $15 Million project to install pumps to keep the streets dry
during regular high tides that flood them.
Counter-intuitively, the city has also approved construction ofmulti-million dollar condos so they can raise enough real estate taxes to pay
for the project.
Are they just whistling in the dark? Englander might say so.
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| High tide comes up through storm drains in Miami Beach |
A foot of SLR will move the shoreline inland 300 feet,
globally averaged. In low-lying coastal areas, like Miami Beach, the average
will be exceeded. The IPCC estimate of minimum SLR this Century is 2 feet. You do the math!
As for the predictability of the study, John points out that
the Antarctic ice ledge poised to break off into the ocean will add 10 feet to
SLR in a very short timeframe. We don’t
know if that will happen this Century or next.
But, it will happen.
There are no answers to Fermi’s Paradox because there is no
time limit to the question. It’s
possible that civilizations throughout the Universe have always hit the wall of
sustainability. We may be next.
Perhaps we should just leave an epitaph, again quoting the quotable
Mr. Vonnegut:
“We could have saved the Earth but we were too damned
cheap.”
WHO WILL LEAD?
