Sunday, March 24, 2013

Open the border! Wait, it’s already open!


I lived in Denver for a few years and had the experience of being referred to as an Anglo when I visited places like Santa Fe and Tucson.  Being from New York, it struck me as odd.  When I was a kid the W.A.S.P. crowd made sure I was aware of our ethnic difference.  I was not Anglo-Saxon or Protestant.  So, why are all these Mexican-Americans referring to me as an Anglo

The US has seen many non-Protestant waves of immigrants from the Irish to Italians and certainly many non-Anglo-Saxon waves of immigrants as well.  But other than Mexicans, none have had a historical claim to American territory.  Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, California, Nevada and Utah were part of Mexico until the 1840’s.  Even after those states became part of the US, there was a substantial footprint of Mexicans throughout the territory.  Even today, Mexicans who arrive here “enjoy a sense of being on their own turf” according to Boston College professor Peter Skerry.

In this context, it seems that Tea Party Senator Rand Paul is a little late to the party when he pronounced last week that, "Prudence, compassion and thrift all point us toward the same goal: bringing these workers out of the shadows and into becoming and being taxpaying members of society."  The fact that he has come to this conclusion suggests that we may yet get comprehensive immigration reform. 

Many conservatives insist that we must “secure our border” first.  But it’s fair to say that the border has never been secure.  The geography of the southwestern US and northwestern Mexico is dominated by desert.  There is no natural geographic boundary like a wide river or a mountain range. 

And, it’s also fair to say that the status quo hampers the progress of long-time productive residents by ensuring they will always operate in the shadow economy.  Legalizing their status will give them upward mobility and provide their children with an opportunity to succeed.

Our focus on the Middle East over the last 10 years has absorbed over $1T of American capital as well as the attention of two presidents, four secretaries of state, four secretaries of defense, the people in the administration who work for them, the Congress and our intelligence establishment.  It has also cost over 5000 American lives and impaired our economic prospects. 

Meanwhile, a massive state failure was developing on our southern border with more profound implications for our long-term future.  No other industrialized country has such a long land border with a third world nation.  Perhaps it’s time for us to direct our attention and our resources southward.

The challenges of the porous Mexican-American border are not part of the daily consciousness of Washington elites.  Not only are they not dealing with platoons of illegal entrants crossing their property and inhabiting their cities, but also they aren’t paying the bill.  The costs – education, medical care and crime prevention – are primarily borne by the states. 

Yet, the challenges of integrating massive waves of immigrant Mexicans and Central Americans pale in comparison to the threat of Mexican drug cartels in the rugged terrain of the mountains adjacent to Ciudad Juarez.  It may be that the only way to defeat them is through military action. Yet cross border tension and our focus on illegal immigration hamper our ability to create the right kind of alliance between two countries that lack the legal framework to cooperatively address that challenge.

There are millions of Mexican, Central and South American immigrants in this country illegally. The vast majority of them are law-abiding people seeking to work and support their families.  Why not legalize their status?  There are also millions who cross the border illegally to work and send money home to their families.  Why not legalize their visiting worker status?

The legalized status of these people will enable us to focus on the real challenges of our relationship with Mexico.  It is essential that the Mexican government not be allowed to fail.  We have spent hundreds of billions of dollars ensuring historical outcomes in the Middle East.  Yet we are amazingly passive about what is happening to a country with which we share a long land border.

The only question is:  WHO WILL LEAD?

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Frack-tured Fairy Tales

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People of a certain age will remember the Rocky & Bullwinkle Show.  It was a prime time satirical cartoon that was popular decades before The Simpsons and Family Guy.  A regular feature of the show was ‘Fractured Fairy Tales’ which played on malapropisms to get you to chuckle.  They were kind of ‘punny’ in their day.

Now, the governor of New York is promoting his own fairy tale.  This one is over fracking, the controversial practice of bringing vast newly discovered reserves of natural gas to the surface. New York is sitting on the Marcellus Shale, the second largest known reserve of natural gas in the world at 95,000 square miles ranging in depth from 4,000 to 8,000 feet.  If it had been discovered in Texas, every pickup truck in the state would be on autopilot to the nearest wellhead.  Money would have been invested, drilling would have commenced, a new source of energy would be available to the public and guys wearing boots and ten-gallon hats would be lighting cigars with hundred dollar bills.

But, not in New York.  Many a pickup truck can be seen with a ‘No Fracking’ bumper sticker and the environmental lobby holds a lot of sway in Albany.  This is no small matter.  Studies done by economists at Citigroup project that natural gas coupled with improvements in alternative energy sources and efficiency of power plants, factories and autos have the potential of making the US energy independent within a decade. 

Fracking will attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which has been on the decline since the start of the Great Recession.  Energy independence will reduce our net trade deficit by approximately $433 Billion per year. Energy independence will mitigate our national security concerns in the Middle East, reduce our carbon footprint and create domestic jobs.

I do not mean to diminish the environmental concerns.  Anyone who has seen the documentary Gasland knows that fracking, if done improperly can ruin the water supply.  But, it’s being done safely in places like Texas and North Dakota.

To stir the pot a bit, President Obama has nominated Ernest Moniz to head the Energy Department.  Moniz comes from the MIT Energy initiative, financed by the industry.  He has expressed support for nuclear power and has declared the risks of fracking to be “manageable”.  Perhaps the President really intends to follow through on the policies he outlined in his State of the Union speech:  “this country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy.”

That isn’t to say that there won’t be incidents.  These activities are prone to human error, as Three Mile Island, the Exxon Valdez and the BP Gulf oil spill have shown us.  But, the opportunity is too great to ignore.  The question isn’t should we or should we not frack.  The question is how can we do it as safely as possible. 

Moreover, we must be view fracking and natural gas in the proper context.  It is not the final answer.  It is a bridge solution.  In the near term, it will reduce greenhouse gases and reduce imports of foreign oil.  However, it’s equally important that we support the research and development initiatives of government agencies like the Advance Research Projects Administration – Energy (ARPA-E) that will provide long term solutions that will enable us to be energy independent while emitting fewer greenhouse gases.  None of the alternative energy options are economically or technologically viable today.  But, they will be some day.  Just not some day soon.

For New York, there’s a broader issue.  Governor Andrew Cuomo has declared his state “Open for Business” and is backing it up with an impressive public relations campaign.  But, such declarations must be backed up by facts.  Businesses are driven by dollars not slogans.  And, New York continues to lose jobs and people to other states. 

In a recent TV ad, the governor makes a big deal about his new policies not increasing taxes.  But, if he wants his slogan to be true, he needs to come to grips with the lack of competitiveness from which New York suffers compared to other states.  Businesses set up shop in low tax, low cost states.  New York is at the opposite end of the spectrum.

The governor must address the structural problems that cause New York to be lagging the nation in job growth and unemployment.  Otherwise the ‘Open for Business’ campaign is just another Fractured Fairy Tale.

WHO WILL LEAD?