Are You Ready for Y2K? No, I Am Not Kidding

-->

I am not sure why we love zeroes.  But, we do.  It’s noteworthy when the stock market hits a milestone, when our odometer goes over 100,000 or when our age passes a decade mark.  The granddaddy of them all?   Y2K!  It was supposed to be a big deal.  And…

Nothing significant happened.  Sure, the stock market crashed.  But that’s hardly unusual.

We shouldn’t be surprised.  It has been the years ending in 1-3 that have been significant in our history.

In 1813, our nation was at war.  That, in and of itself, is not surprising.  But the War of 1812 was the first time the nation fought as the United States of America.  The Revolutionary War had been fought by separately governed colonies united in a common cause.

The defeat of a superior military force, twice in a generation, solidified U.S. dominance of the North American continent.  The economic expansion that followed – known as the Era of Good Feelings – was driven by immigration, cheap land and laissez-faire capitalism.  The military hero of the war was future President Andrew Jackson, whose efforts to decentralize banks financed the growth of an agricultural economy for half a century.

The passage of the 16^th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, authorizing the federal income tax, was the watershed that marked the year 1913. The Progressive Woodrow Wilson, inaugurated that same year, ushered in the era of big government. 

Progressivism was a reaction to corporate abuse leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank, the Federal Trade Commission and a variety of federal financing schemes to help the little guy.  All were funded by a tax of 1% of income above $3,000 rising to 7% of income above $500,000.

The expansion of the U.S. military began with WWI and continues to this day.  Large-scale public works projects, the passion of Herbert Hoover, were expanded during the New Deal.  LBJ’s Great Society created new entitlement programs building on FDR’s legacy. Over the last 100 years, government has grown inexorably to become the force it is today.

The evolution of corporate interests drove the reforms of the 1910’s just as the evolution of the global economy over the last two decades has set the stage for 2013.  

Despite the massive loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs (from 18 Million to 12 Million over the last decade), the volume of manufactured goods is increasing.  Automation has allowed U.S. companies to repatriate their factories if not the jobs that went with them. 

A recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute outlines the impact succinctly:   “Two key priorities for both governments and businesses are education and the development of skills. Companies … will need qualified, computer-savvy factory workers … policy makers must work with industry and educational institutions to ensure that skills learned in school fit the needs of employers.”

So, at a time when many have started to question the value of a college education, as tuitions rise and jobs are not abundant, companies will look for different skill sets.  I expect that many who are not eligible for the top academic programs that lead to Wall Street or the Silicon Valley will opt for specialized programs that will train them as welders who understand metallurgy, fabricators who understand computer aided design and repair technicians who deal with the software that runs a modern factory. 

Concurrently, the International Energy Agency projects that the U.S. could become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020.  The combination of new technology and the discovery of abundant oil and gas resources offer hope of energy independence within a couple of decades.  These developments will have a major impact on our foreign policy and military strategies as the Middle East becomes less important as a provider of natural resources even as terrorism remains a strategic threat. 

For the first time in history, a majority of people lives in cities, 3.3 Billion people according to the World Bank. In the United States, the trend toward urbanization has created entrepreneurialism and innovation.  Our best educated students are flocking to cities like Palo Alto and Boston if they are tech oriented; or, to New York or Chicago if they are financially oriented.   But, even cities like Pittsburgh, a symbol of rust belt decay a generation ago, have undergone a renaissance of entrepreneurialism. 

Journalists and pundits tell us that in 2012, the electorate has chosen the status quo.  The president was reelected and the makeup of Congress was hardly affected by the election three weeks ago.  But, it was the states with large cities that reelected the president.  And it is the urbanization of the electorate will engender social change.  When Bill Clinton was elected 20 years ago, the WW II generation was a significant factor in the electorate.  Now most of them are gone, replaced by the millennial generation with open attitudes toward social issues and a drive to create new ventures in a more connected world. 

The forces that will overcome our financial crisis are in place.  Capital will be invested and investors will get a return.  

Jobs will be created.  The world will be a better place.  And, when that happens, our short-term petty squabbles will fade away.

And, a hundred years from now, no one will remember the fiscal cliff or why gay marriage and immigration reform were controversial.

I Love a Parade

I checked the Palm Beach Post yesterday, scoping out the parade options.  I have a choice of several but it appears that West Palm Beach offers the best of the lot.  The parade will be on Clematis Street, an oasis of upscale casual dining and night clubs.  It will be followed by entertainment.

Today, Veterans Day, will be marked by pronouncements made on high and somber flag raising ceremonies.  And, tomorrow…  Well, tomorrow we’ll go back to business as usual. 

Less than 1% of Americans have been on active duty in the military.  So, it’s difficult for us to relate to the challenges of the veterans whose service we celebrate today. 

I have served on the board of Operation Homefront's Florida chapter until its merger with the national organization recently.  OH helped over 156,000 veterans and their families last year alone.  Yet, as the wars wind down, the challenges of reintegrating veterans into civilian life absorb less of our attention. 

United Way of Broward County and their counterparts at the American Red Cross have come together to create a consortium of non-profits and government entities with the goal of helping veterans.  The effort has been branded as Mission United under the leadership of Commander Nancy Vaniman, USN (ret.).  Nancy is the type of person who, when told to take the hill, will be planting a flag there before long.

There are a variety of national efforts focused on defining the challenges of veteran reintegration.  Much of it focuses on the impact of PTSD on the individuals and their families.  My focus, as a member of the Mission United Advisory Committee is on employment. 

I asked Nancy if there were a set of best practices that have been documented so we don’t reinvent the wheel.  “We’re not reinventing the wheel,” she said.  “We’re INVENTING the wheel.” 

It’s a daunting challenge.  When I got out of the Navy, nearly every hiring manager had been in the service.  Now it’s rare that you find someone who has served.  Do those folks understand the value of hiring a vet?  Are they up to the challenge?

Put another way…  How many people who say they “support out troops” are really willing to help?

So, how do we develop and implement a plan to close the gap between our best intentions and actual results?

I tend to rely on my business training when developing a game plan to achieve an objective.  Before you make a “to-do” list, you need to define your strategies.  To address the challenge of improving the employment results, we have developed four.

First and foremost is Reintegration.  A lot of work has been done to create a framework for integrating veterans.  The military was the first and only job many of them have ever had.

Second is basic training.  No, not pushups and the rifle range, but rather learning how to write a resume and interview for a job. 

Next is our communication strategy.  We must let veterans know how to get help and get our message to prospective employers.

And, of course, we need to train those employers on the value of hiring veterans and the associated challenges.  This isn’t just about doing the right thing; it’s about the value a military veteran can add to a business.

It’s this last challenge that I think will be the toughest.  Employers no longer value general skills like discipline, creativity and goal orientation – which military veterans have in abundance.  They are looking for direct functional experience. 

I never hire that way.  I would rather hire someone who has the right attitude and personal orientation and teach them the fundamentals.  I like teams who are goal oriented, committed to a plan and who won’t give up until they achieve their objectives. Results are more important than expertise. But, as regular readers know by know by now, I am something of a dinosaur. 

Yes, I love a parade.  But, when Monday comes, veterans face a very difficult reality. 

And you?  Are you a hiring manager?  Are you willing to adapt your hiring practices to truly support our troops? 

Or to put it another way…  WHO WILL LEAD?

The Right is Wrong and the Left is Not Right, Part 2

It seems hard to believe that a few of you haven’t decided how to vote tomorrow --    2% according to Rasmussen Polls.  Perhaps your indecisiveness is from the queasy feeling you get when you really think about what Democrats and Republicans have to offer.

Whether it’s the Federal budget, the role of government or social policy, hypocrisy abounds.  Here are just a few of my favorite examples.

***********************************

One could spend lots of time debating the merits of various government programs.  But, our fiscal mess isn’t about Big Bird; it’s about entitlement and tax reform.  Yet, Democrats steadfastly refuse to consider entitlement reform and Republicans will not consider any increase in taxes.  A number of bi-partisan groups – including the President’s own commission (Simpson-Bowles) – have concluded that we must do both. 

The commission recommends entitlement reforms that include reducing benefits to upper income recipients and indexing the eligibility age to life expectancy.   Without it, they say, Social Security will go broke by 2037.  Among its other recommendations is the elimination or dramatic reduction of “tax expenditures”.  In plain English, they are saying that one can’t balance the budget without getting rid of or capping deductions that affect the middle class.   In other words, you can’t preserve entitlements without raising taxes and the idea that tax increases sufficient to reduce the deficit won’t touch the middle class is absurd. 

Yet, both presidential candidates have promised the middle class they will not see a tax increase. 

*************************************

Among my favorite contradictions is the way in which our political leaders approach the goal of reducing carbon emissions.  The 2009 Obama stimulus includes programs that invest in private green technology companies.  Anyone who is paying attention knows that at least two of them – Solyndra and A123 – have gone bankrupt following a combined government investment of over $700 Million. 

Senator Chuck Grassley has been among the most vocal of critics.  Taxpayer money should not be invested in businesses that can’t attract private money because they are financially unviable, says Grassley.  Now, assets of those companies are being picked over by Chinese businesses.  In effect, the assets purchased by the taxpayers will be acquired at a discount creating green jobs in China. 

Senator Charles Grassley (R-IA)

But, Grassley is a Republican from Iowa, where every presidential candidate is compelled to take the "Ethanol Pledge" or risk a poor showing in the Iowa Caucuses.  You see, Iowa produces more corn that any state in the nation.  The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which was supported by Grassley, requires that gasoline sold in this country include 15 Billion gallons of ethanol from corn by 2015.  Never mind that Ethanol requires more energy to produce than it, in turn, produces.  Or that the law is driving up the cost of food during our current drought.  It helps farmers in Grassley’s home state.

**********************************

There is an old saw about the road to Hell being paved with good intentions.  Everyone likes being charitable.  Everyone likes to help others.  Many even see government as a solution to the need to provide for those less fortunate. 

But, when we look around us all we see is government going broke trying.  Exhibit A is the state of Illinois.  Promised pension and healthcare benefits to government employees have left the state with the second highest debt per capita (behind New York).  The State Budget Crisis Task Force concluded that despite all that borrowing, Illinois’ public pension system’s shortfall is estimated at $85 billion. So, how can government improve schools, upgrade crumbling infrastructure and improve the lives of the poor?  The deficit is hurting the people that liberals hope to help.

Over the years, voters haven’t been willing to pay higher taxes to fund the programs they say they want.  But, if no one wants to pay for it, do they really want it?  And, if they don’t really want it, shouldn’t our political leaders stop approving it?

***********************************

Conservatives like to talk about freedom.  They refer to the right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” asserted in the Declaration of Independence.  So, why doesn’t that right extend to those who disagree with the minority of Americans who describe themselves as evangelical Christians? 

The Republican Party caters to xenophobes and homophobes.  And the debate over a woman’s right to reproductive choice has elicited some of the most offensive comments about rape that I have heard since the 1970’s.  Does Todd Akin really believe that “if it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down”?  He was talking about pregnancies.  Where did this guy study biology?  And, what exactly is a legitimate rape?

I am an old white guy.  So, the social policies of Republicans don't affect me directly.  But one must wonder.  Will there be enough old white guys left in America to elect Republicans in the future?

*********************************

Democrats undermine their credibility when they can’t pay for the programs they invent.  And, Republicans undermine their credibility when they preach freedom but seek to limit it for those with whom they disagree.

It’s no wonder you’re undecided.

WHO WILL LEAD?