When I was a kid, we had A bomb drills in school. The fear of a Soviet sneak attack was that
great. It was part of our national
psyche. My parents didn’t build a bomb
shelter in the backyard but we wouldn’t have been alone if they had.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, it revealed the weaknesses
of an economic and political system that ignored sound principles of economic
freedom and human rights. We have had
little to fear from Russia since. Not
only are they weak economically but also they are weak militarily.
The Russian sphere of influence has shifted east and west
for centuries. It has never extended so
far to the west as it did during the Cold War and it has never been so far east
as it is now. The Russians would like to
change that.
Toward that end, they have struck deals with countries like
Ukraine, Poland and Germany to sell them oil and gas. And, they haven’t been
shy about using their customers’ reliance upon them for energy as a means to
influence international events. Energy
exporting nations in South Asia and the Middle East are their economic
competitors. So, they seek to extend their sphere of influence southward as well.
By contrast, the United States is an economic and military
juggernaut, a maritime nation whose integration into the global supply-chain (and
our ability to keep it secure) makes it in everyone’s interest to be our
ally.
So, how does Russia end up taking us to school over the
handling of Syria? Or, to put it
differently, why we are playing a weak hand when we have a strong one?
The U.S. has a conflict between ideology and military
strategy. Our beliefs – the why of what
we know we should do – are based on human rights, the manifestation of which,
at least in the case of Syria, is our opposition to weapons of mass
destruction. Moreover, we’ve been
sensitized to the specter of mass genocide.
Many people – despite their opposition to war – think we could have
prevented the death of hundreds of thousands if we had acted sooner in Rwanda
and Bosnia.
So, there is constant friction between what we believe and
what we do. Firing missiles, dropping
bombs and sending in the Marines is not the best way to promote human rights.
Our original strategy vis-à-vis Syria was to strike in a
limited way. It would not have had a big
effect. It wouldn’t have destroyed the chemical
weapons and wouldn’t have toppled the Assad regime. It would have been painful while it lasted
but not debilitating to a dictator who is in the middle of a long war and who would
easily be resupplied by his Russian allies.
So, why do it? Like
most diplomatic moves played out on the world stage, it’s a gesture. A gesture to express our unhappiness.
Unfortunately, the result was to send a signal it doesn’t
really matter if we are unhappy! Our
military power should be feared but our diplomatic waffling undermines our
intentions. The outcome has been to hand Russia an opportunity to appear to be
our equals (or perhaps our superior) by brokering a solution that allows us to
back down in the face of popular opposition.
Our President seems unable to decide if he wants to be
George W. Bush or Jimmy Carter and is, therefore, ineffective at being
either. Nations with a strong interest
in becoming reliable allies in the region – from Azerbaijan to Turkey to Poland
– may now see us as unreliable partners.
The image of Russia forcing us to back down and appearing to be our
equals for the first time since the Cold War is bound to have an influence for
a very long time.
International diplomacy is a game of carrots and
sticks. We should reserve our carrots
for those who mirror our values and reserve our sticks for those who pose a
serious threat.
The economic and military power of the United States
provides us an opportunity to LEAD. Our
values, our economic and political systems are based on human rights, economic
freedom and the rule of law. Promoting
these values and helping our allies develop liberal institutions to implement
them will lead to global stability and prosperity. Our long-term national and economic security
depends upon it.
WHO WILL LEAD?
