Sunday, August 7, 2011

VIVA ITALIA !!

I owe Suzanne a trip to Italy. We were supposed to go for our 25th wedding anniversary but never made it. We have planned it two or three times since but cancelled each time for some cockamamie reason – business, family, whatever.


Our 30th anniversary is coming up this November so I better make good – and soon.

We’ll probably wait till spring which should be a good time to go for lots of reasons. Of course, the weather will be better. Italy can be quite rainy and cold in November. But also it will be cheaper. After all, Europe can’t keep putting off the inevitable.

It may seem counterintuitive to think that the Euro will lose value in the next year. Especially after recent events. First, we had a crisis manufactured by the Tea Party. Once the dust settled, Wall Street realized that while we were watching the melodrama within the beltway, the economy was going in the crapper. I can’t imagine why they were surprised. All the wags have been saying that the Keynesian stimulus provided by the Democrats wouldn’t work. So, why act so startled when it doesn’t?

I can’t wait to get to Florence. It’s a city that changes the molecular structure of your body. It is among my favorite places in the world. It’s also the birthplace of Michelangelo and the home of some of his most famous works including the statue of David, housed at the Accademia di Florence. It costs €21 to get in. That’s about $31.

While the U.S. and the financial markets were in chaos, Italy was getting its act together. Silvio Berlusconi, who hangs out with hookers when he’s not running the country, announced on Friday a new austerity program that was part of a deal to get the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy Italy’s bonds, essentially guaranteeing their liquidity. Sounds like they are on the right track, doesn’t it?

The Amalfi Coast
Suzanne and I are debating whether to go north from Rome or south. I love northern Italy but our families are from the south. Mine from Sicily and hers from Calabria, the toe of the boot. Maybe we’ll stay in Amalfi on the way down. We could stay at the Hotel Santa Catarina. The standard room is €360 per night. That’s over 500 bucks!

Of course, Standard & Poor’s hasn't helped by downgrading the U.S. Treasury’s issues of bills and bonds. This comes from the same folks who rated all of those mortgage backed securities AAA. Something I learned when I worked on Wall Street: you can’t fool the bond market. So, while everything has been melting down  – large cap stocks, small cap stocks, commodities  – the U.S. Bond was rallying. The 10 year is approaching 2% as I write this, down from a high of over 3.7% about early in 2011. Take that, S&P!

Fiat Seicento
Maybe we should rent a car and take the northern route. Gas costs about €1 per liter. Let’s see – a liter is .22 gallons… I think that’s about 6 bucks a gallon. Good thing those European cars are so tiny! Hmmm… Maybe we should take the train.

Venice could be nice but it would eliminate the trip to the south on a two week vacation. I have never been there. Friends who have, tell me it’s a two day stay before you want to move on. Maybe Suzanne is right. We should go south. The average daytime high in Calabria in May is 21. That’s Celsius. Fahrenheit is 69. Sounds delightful.

Italy’s fiscal soundness is at the mercy of the Germans. The European Union (EU) was their creation. It provided them with something Adolf Hitler couldn’t: domination of the European continent.

Of course, this fact is lost on the average German voter. The country’s Prime Minister, Angela Merkel, is trying to balance the need to hold the union together with the taxpayers’ outrage at having to bail out the fiscally irresponsible, Ireland, Greece, et al. Of course, they seem to have forgotten that their last decade of prosperity resulted from the creation of the EU. Their export-driven economy is booming because the creation of a single currency eliminated currency fluctuations that would have made their manufactured products too expensive for the Greeks, Spaniard and, yes, the Italians to buy.

Of course, the citizens of those countries had to borrow to buy. And, their banks had to buy government bonds to keep the whole Ponzi scheme going. Sound familiar?

Well, it’s all coming home to roost. And PM Merkel will have to walk a fine line to both survive politically and provide enough capital to the ECB and its new bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Publicly, she seems to be unaware that they haven’t printed enough Euros yet. But they will. Just like the Fed did on this side of the Atlantic. So, the Euro will weaken just as the dollar has.

And, Suzanne and I will be able to stay on the Amalfi coast for a mere 300 bucks a night. Wait a minute; that’s still pretty expensive. Maybe we should go north…..

What do you think?





11 comments:

  1. Most definitely, Venice!
    It will be underwater (the old fashioned kind) soon anyway, so see it before you need scuba gear.
    And it is awesome!

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  2. Now you'll have to postpone it because you lost your 401K in the stock market.

    Seriously, do not miss Rome, Venice (my personal favorite), Pisa, Florence, to name a few. It's a lot easier to plan a trip now using the internet. In 1964 (when I was there with my parents) I remembered all the articles in my Weekly Reader at school and the rest was based on interest and serendipity. The only thing we DIDN'T do was ride a gondola (expensive even then), but we took the Venetian version of a bus...the Vaporetto (or something like that) tour of the harbor with a guide...I noticed that the information given in other languages was a lot longer than what they gave in English.

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  3. You've never been to Venezia??? You have to go. It's unique I was there - second time - with my sisters, mom and cousin four years ago. We beat the exorbitant hotel costs by renting an apartment for the weekend. We had the whole place to ourselves, not just a couple of rooms. Complete privacy. A five-minute walk from Piazza San Marco. Three nights, slept the five of us comfortably, $1000 USD - totally reasonable. There are several INet sites about apartment rentals. You might find some for Amalfi coast.



    Sit at a table in Piazza San Marco, people-watch, sip a cappuccino, and see the clock with the moving shepherds ring in the next hour. The museums are wonderful. Get lost in the myriad of alleys. Spend a day in Murano watching the glass makers, and then strolling the tiny streets and quaint shops.

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  4. This sounds like a trip Jennie and I have been planning for a long time as well. My sister has lived in Florence for 20 years but we have never visited. Work has always been the excuse. You can't go to Italy for just a week, including travel time. So to do the trip the right way you have to figure on 2 weeks (or more). Maybe next year wil be the year for Jennie and me! Lou

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  5. Of all the Italian cities, Venice was my favorite.

    Posted by Bernardette Enochian

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  6. I will also plan a trip to Italy but will explore the countryside and the seaside much more than the big cities... except that going to the Opera is high on my list of 'must do.'
    SIGHT is a fab idea - ty Bernadette

    Posted by katie diner

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  7. You've never been to Venezia??? You have to go. It's unique I was there - second time - with my sisters, mom and cousin four years ago. We beat the exorbitant hotel costs by renting an apartment for the weekend. We had the whole place to ourselves, not just a couple of rooms. Complete privacy. A five-minute walk from Piazza San Marco. Three nights, slept the five of us comfortably, $1000 USD - totally reasonable. There are several INet sites about apartment rentals. You might find some for Amalfi coast.



    Sit at a table in Piazza San Marco, people-watch, sip a cappuccino, and see the clock with the moving shepherds ring in the next hour. The museums are wonderful. Get lost in the myriad of alleys. Spend a day in Murano watching the glass makers, and then strolling the tiny streets and quaint shops.

    Best,
    Kathy

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  8. This sounds like a trip Jennie and I have been planning for a long time as well. My sister has lived in Florence for 20 years but we have never visited. Work has always been the excuse. You can't go to Italy for just a week, including travel time. So to do the trip the right way you have to figure on 2 weeks (or more). Maybe next year wil be the year for Jennie and me! Lou

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  9. This may be your best yet!!!!

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  10. Gas is more like 1.50€/liter - the 1€ treshhold was left behind years ago. It's still too cheap as people don't consider the cost of driving.

    It shouldn't stop you going though - other elements of the trip are going to be cheaper than what they would be in the States - most notably meals and wine - and the quality is going to be much better than what you#d get at home.

    Venice is probably one of the most expensive options - it's small and tourists are queuing to get there - so why should they be reasonable (or even friendly). But there's Herculanum (south of Naples), the Amalfi coast, Sicily with it's greek temples (some of them perfectly intact - not the ruins you find in Greece), etc etc

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  11. But you've already done all that Italian stuff John! Pasta, pasta, tomato sauce, etc. Give it up and go to The Greek Islands. The accommodation is much less expensive, the views spectacular and the food is wonderful. Lots of vegetables, olives, and throwing glasses on the floor!

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